How PLEXOS® Insights Help ERCOT Traders, Planners and Investors See Risk Before It Strikes

If you trade, hedge, or plan in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), you know how fast market conditions shift, and how difficult it is to stay ahead of them. In this blog, we break down three purpose-built forecasting solutions designed to give congestion traders, short-term portfolio managers, and long-term planners the edge they need. Discover how our PLEXOS® Insights products purpose built for ERCOT bring scenario clarity to the decisions that matter most.

Table of Contents

• Why ERCOT needs clarity now
• Monthly auctions: predict congestion and price CRRs with confidence
• Short-term visibility: look beyond Day-Ahead to optimize dispatch
• Mid-term planning: plan with confidence on a nodal basis
• Results you can see: faster, clearer, aligned decisions
• Supporting the grid with smarter decisions

Why ERCOT needs clarity now

ERCOT’s volatility isn’t easing up. Congestion patterns are more unpredictable due to transmission upgrades, rising renewable penetration,
and extreme weather. Market participants are under pressure to act fast, but with confidence. That means getting clarity before making decisions, not after.

Whether you're bidding in the Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR) auction, managing near-term portfolio exposure, or planning infrastructure investments, you need scenario-ready insights that match ERCOT’s latest system view, not last month’s assumptions.

This blog outlines three solutions built for that reality.

Each is tailored to a specific horizon: monthly CRR auctions, 14-day short-term forecasts, and medium-term planning. What they share is a common foundation, the trusted PLEXOS® platform, and a single purpose: helping you make better decisions, faster.

Monthly auctions: predict congestion and price CRRs with confidence

If you manage CRR positions in ERCOT, timing and alignment are everything. ERCOT’s monthly CRR auction compresses decision windows, and traders need to know exactly where and when congestion will hit. Miss the topology update, and your bids risk being stale or misaligned with the cleared model.

PLEXOS® Insights for ERCOT - CRR Trading eliminates that uncertainty. It delivers hour-by-hour nodal forecasts built using ERCOT’s official auction model, updated monthly and ready 3 days before the bidding window opens. Traders don’t have to manage topology updates, data cleaning, or scenario building. It’s all done.

Why it matters:

• Every month, CRR traders must assess where congestion is likely to arise and how spreads will behave at the node, hub, and zone level.
• Getting it wrong leads to overexposure, under-hedged risk, or failed bid strategies.
• In-house models often lag behind ERCOT’s evolving auction topology, leaving trading desks with outdated assumptions.

What it solves:

• Forecasting blind spots due to outdated models
• Misaligned bids due to topology shifts
• Manual workload on congestion analytics

Key capabilities:

• ERCOT auction-aligned topology, refreshed monthly
• Node, hub, and zone congestion forecasts
• 6 pre-run outage and weather scenarios
• Clear analytics for bid sign-off and credit risk
  
  

While monthly auctions demand precision, short-term traders need agility. Let’s look at how PLEXOS Insights extends your view beyond the Day-Ahead window.

Short-term visibility: look beyond Day-Ahead to optimize dispatch

Day-Ahead visibility isn’t enough. ERCOT traders need to see past the 24-hour window, especially when managing renewable variability, storage arbitrage, or intra-month risk. Yet most market tools stop at Day-Ahead.

PLEXOS® Insights for ERCOT - Short-term Trading fills that gap. It delivers a 14-day nodal forecast updated every weekday, using ERCOT’s latest Day-Ahead network model, outage files, and renewable profiles.

Why it matters:

• Traders and operators often rely on limited Day-Ahead forecasts or spreadsheets to plan multi-day dispatch and hedge timing.
• This creates blind spots that can trigger curtailment events or missed arbitrage windows.
• By extending foresight to two weeks, you get ahead of constraints, not caught by them.

Who it helps:

• Energy traders prepping Point To-Point (PTP) bids
• Storage operators planning dispatch
• Renewable asset teams managing curtailment

What it solves:

• Short-term blind spots beyond Day-Ahead
• Manual tracking of constraints and shadow prices
• Lack of granularity at the node/hub/zone level

Key capabilities:

• 14-day forward forecasts for nodal prices and congestion
• Pre- and post-contingency constraint behavior
• Weekday updates using ERCOT’s posted Day-Ahead data

Short-term visibility is critical, but what about decisions with multi-year impact? Let’s explore how planners and investors are using medium-term forecasts to gain confidence in their assumptions.

Mid-term planning: plan with confidence on a nodal basis

Planning in ERCOT shouldn’t rely on static zonal snapshots. Whether you're siting new assets, preparing an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), or running regulatory scenarios, you need nodal-level clarity on congestion, curtailment, and price volatility.

PLEXOS® Insights for ERCOT – Medium-term Reference Case gives you just that: monthly refreshed nodal forecasts built from ERCOT’s seasonal topology, outages, upgrades, and constraint datasets.

Why it matters:

• Medium-term planning often relies on legacy models or consultant snapshots updated quarterly or less.
• These miss key changes to ERCOT topology, constraints, and market behavior.
• PLEXOS® Insights for ERCOT – Medium-term Reference Case ensures every assumption reflects how ERCOT actually operates.

Who it helps:

• Developers evaluating siting decisions
• IRP teams aligning models with ERCOT reality
• Investors assessing risk under policy and load scenarios

What it solves:

• Stale or generic long-term forecasts
• Lack of nodal insight for capital planning
• Inconsistent scenarios across stakeholders

Key capabilities:

• Forecasts for nodal prices, curtailment, constraint trends
• Scenario-ready dashboards for fuel mix, load, policy changes
• Based on ERCOT’s Transmission Project Information Tracking (TPIT) upgrades and Steady-State Working Group (SSWG) model

Results you can see: faster, clearer, aligned decisions

Whether you're a trader preparing bids, a short-term operator managing volatility, or a planner making capital decisions, Energy Exemplar’s PLEXOS® Insights products for ERCOT give you:

• Forecasts aligned with ERCOT’s real-world models and updates
• Faster internal reviews and approvals
• Less reliance on internal model builds or manual data wrangling
• More confident decision-making at every level

Supporting the grid with smarter decisions

Market volatility isn’t going away, and neither is the need for data-driven confidence. Solutions like PLEXOS® Insights don’t just make life easier for individual desks or teams, they improve how the entire grid prepares, reacts, and evolves.

As more decisions hinge on weather, outage risk, and renewable variability, staying aligned with ERCOT’s operational model isn’t just smart, it’s essential for reliability, resilience, and progress.

Energy Exemplar remains dedicated to continuous development, bringing you the most powerful and user-friendly energy modeling solutions available. Stay tuned for even more exciting features coming soon!