Thursday, 23 May 2024

Track 2: Decarbonisation

Leveraging Stochastic Inputs to Model Power Price Uncertainty & Volatility to Enhance Asset Investment Decision Making

The recent gas crisis highlighted the energy markets' volatility, with unexpected supply issues and geopolitical tensions driving unprecedented power prices. Traditional deterministic models, which focus on single-scenario forecasts and long-term equilibrium, often miss these fluctuations due to their static assumptions. This creates a blind spot for extreme market events. In contrast, stochastic modelling, which considers multiple scenarios, provides a more robust framework for capturing market uncertainties and enhancing decision-making in power markets. This discussion will explore the uncertainties that need addressing for more accurate long-term power price forecasts..

Track 2: Decarbonisation

Introduction to PLEXOS Playbooks

Track 2: Decarbonisation

Optimization of Green Ammonia Projects with Universal Class

Universal class provides capability to model all components of the green ammonia facilities, starting from renewable generation and battery storage to electrolyzers, ammonia plants, and respective storages. Whole production chain from renewable electricity to hydrogen, and then hydrogen to ammonia and other derivatives can be represented. With Universal Class we are able to optimize size of the individual components, conduct risk assessment and quantify levelized cost of hydrogen i.e. ammonia.

Track 2: Decarbonisation

Model Development for Decarbonisation of a Greek Island

Islands often have specific challenges when it comes to the electricity supply, as the grids are small and more vulnerable to instabilities. Introducing large shares of renewable power requires flexible power plants that can be turned on and off quickly as power exchange with other grids is often limited or not possible at all. A typical Greek Island scenario will be analyzed with regard to decarbonization. It will be shown how large shares of renewable power can be achieved by installing different types/combinations of flexible power plants.

Track 2: Decarbonisation

Use Cases of EWEC's Integrated Planning Approach

The case study will focus on UAE’s ambitious clean energy targets: Net Zero by 2050. 
EWEC is modelling UAE’s coupled water-and-power system and defining the transitioning from a load served by nuclear, gas and photovoltaic generation to a system with 60% clean generation by 2035 and reaching the Net Zero in 2050. UAE has a good availability of fossil fuels, but its clean energy ambitions steer the energy mix more towards nuclear, batteries, PV and wind generation, while also looking at unexpected candidates like pumped hydro or geothermal generation.

Track 2: Decarbonisation

Development of Generation Capacities in the Light of European Energy Policies and the Impact on the Centralized Heating and Cooling Systems

The project analyzed options to decarbonize Zagreb's district heating system in alignment with the Fit for 55 package and the Paris Agreement. It focused on identifying efficient technological solutions to reduce emissions and improve resource use, environmental quality, and citizens' well-being. Options included hydrogen generation, CO2 extraction, electric boilers, heat pumps, geothermal and solar energy, and network upgrades. PLEXOS software was used to plan construction until 2030, aiming to guide investment decisions and project development.