Navigating Market Volatility with PLEXOS: A Data-Driven Approach

The global shift toward renewables is reshaping the energy system, bringing new levels of complexity, uncertainty, and interconnection. Prices fluctuate more frequently, supply and demand patterns are harder to predict, and new technologies are emerging faster than ever. In this dynamic environment, traditional ways of planning no longer suffice. That’s where Energy Exemplar and our energy modeling and simulation platform, PLEXOS®, come in.

To better understand how organisations are adapting to this change, we decided to take part in the World Energy Council's ‘Humanising Energy’ series with films produced for us by BBC StoryWorks (learn more about our films here). Our second film in the series explores how data, technology and human expertise come together to support more confident decision-making in the face of energy market volatility. 

In this blog, we unpack the key themes from the film. You’ll hear from Brian Larkin at ElectroRoute and Tracey Granger at Energy Exemplar as they share how technology like PLEXOS is helping energy planners and analysts manage risk, model uncertainty and plan for a more sustainable energy future. 

Navigating an Uncertain Market 

As more renewable energy enters the grid, new challenges emerge. Wind and solar are inherently variable - they don’t follow predictable schedules like conventional power plants. During “Dunkelflaute” periods, when calm and overcast conditions dramatically reduce generation, grid systems face mounting pressure, and prices can spike dramatically across electricity markets. 

For Analysts like Brian Larkin at ElectroRoute, a renewables focused, energy trading and services company, the challenge lies in turning that uncertainty into manageable risk.

“My job involves predicting the revenues that a wind asset or solar generator or battery might earn in a market over the next 10 or 20 years,” Brian explains.

To do that, Brian and his team turn to PLEXOS®, Energy Exemplar’s energy modeling and simulation platform. With thousands of data inputs “ranging from weather data to fuel prices to energy demand patterns to generators,” users like ElectroRoute simulate electricity market outcomes across multiple futures. 

“Energy markets can be extremely volatile, prices changing as often as every 5 minutes... PLEXOS then produces at a very granular level of detail what the price of electricity might be over the next 10 to 20 years.”

– Brian Larkin, ElectroRoute

This modeling capability allows ElectroRoute to offer renewable developers fixed-price agreements and power purchase agreements (PPAs). Without these agreements, developers would be exposed to fluctuating spot market prices, which can vary wildly from hour to hour. Fixed-price contracts help secure project financing and ensure revenue stability over the long term, making investment in renewables less risky. This creates more financial certainty in an otherwise volatile market.

'Humanising Energy'...

...is a World Energy Council series, produced by BBC StoryWorks, exploring challenges and opportunities of the energy transitions. Energy Exemplar has had three films produced for us to tell our story.

Accurate Forecasting Technology is Key to Navigating Volatility  

In fast-moving, complex markets, speed and confidence go hand-in-hand. Market prices are highly volatile and having an edge means being able to anticipate and respond quickly. 

According to Brian, to navigate these evolving markets, traders and analysts look for modeling solutions that: 

• Provide high-resolution forecasting over short, medium and long-term horizons at resolutions down to 5-minute intervals 
• Integrate vast datasets, including fuel prices, demand curves, and capacity constraints 
• Test thousands of “what if” scenarios quickly and reliably 
• Quantify revenue risk for PPAs, storage assets, and hybrid portfolios 

This is where PLEXOS excels. It delivers the analytical depth traders need at the speed the market demands. Unlike statistical models, which rely on historical data and struggle in new or extreme market conditions, PLEXOS is a fundamental model. It simulates the physical operation of the energy system, accounting for supply-demand balance, outages, startup costs, and market constraints. This allows users to forecast prices even during  Dunkelflaute events or when markets enter uncharted territory. Because it models uncertainty instead of just ideal outcomes, it helps companies prepare rather than merely guess. 

Supporting Strategy with Simulation 

As Head of Data, EMEA at Energy Exemplar, Tracey Granger and her team develop Energy Exemplar’s simulation-ready datasets, which are models that form the foundation of PLEXOS’ fundamental simulations. By starting with a calibrated dataset, clients can skip months of manual setup and get straight to testing investment strategies, policy impacts, or infrastructure scenarios. 

Tracey and her team also help organizations like ElectroRoute build models that reflect real-world complexity and regulatory nuance.

“Everybody in the energy sector has to forecast what's going to happen in the future, and the best way of doing that is to build a model so you can run multiple scenarios of the key drivers.”

- Tracey Granger, Energy Exemplar 

From fossil fuel generators to grid-scale batteries, Energy Exemplar guides users from across the entire energy ecosystem in translating complex questions into quantifiable simulations. These might include the effects of carbon pricing or transmission constraints. 

As Tracey puts it, “If you can put your problem or your question into a formula, then PLEXOS can help you solve it.”  

With increased market penetration of renewable assets, which are notoriously hard to predict, and new technologies entering the mix, fundamental simulation has become more than just a planning tool. It is essential for understanding grid reliability, price formation, long-term investment decisions across all market participants, and much more. It is establishing itself as a core function that supports business decisions. 

Building Confidence Through Data and Advanced Technology  

By simulating how energy systems behave under different conditions, PLEXOS empowers energy stakeholders such as planners, developers, generators, traders, operators, and investors to explore scenarios, test assumptions, and make decisions with clarity and confidence.

Our film shows the people behind the models - the analysts forecasting future revenue, the teams curating datasets, and the planners thinking ahead. It’s a reminder that the energy transition depends not just on infrastructure, but on imagination, discipline, and technology designed to handle complexity. 

“PLEXOS helps global energy players analyse these uncertainties so they can make smarter, data-driven decisions.” 

- Tracey Granger, Energy Exemplar 

Explore the film and let us show you what’s possible. If you're facing similar challenges with uncertainty, volatility, and the pressure to plan better, we'd love to talk.  

Watch the full film below and learn more about our part in the Humanising Energy series here.