Solving Gas Market Volatility with PLEXOS®: A Planner’s Guide to Defensible Forecasting

North America's gas market is under pressure. AI datacenter demand growth, electrification, LNG exports, emissions policies, and extreme weather are reshaping the supply-demand landscape. Meanwhile, traditional planning tools are slow, fragmented, and struggle to deliver the transparency regulators demand.

The stakes are high: procurement risk, infrastructure investment, long-term planning, and operational reliability. Planners, regulators, and commercial teams all need to ask more complex questions and get credible, traceable answers fast.

This is not the time to rely on old assumptions. When price volatility hits weekly and regulators expect scenario-backed evidence, you need solutions that are ready now.

That’s why teams are turning to PLEXOS® Gas.

In this blog:

• Understanding the North American gas market
• What Is PLEXOS®?
• Inside the platform: Key capabilities for North America
  
• How PLEXOS® delivers what gas planners need

Understanding the North American gas market

The gas system across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico is interconnected, volatile, and evolving rapidly:

• Policy shifts and decarbonization goals are changing the role of gas
• Electrification and increased gas requirements for power generation introduce new demand pressures
• LNG growth drives infrastructure stress and export risk
• Weather variability makes planning harder across seasons

These forces demand more than curve-fitting forecasts. They require scenario-driven models that reflect the physical and economic behavior of the gas system.

What Is PLEXOS®?

PLEXOS® is a simulation platform trusted by energy decision-makers worldwide to model, forecast, and optimize complex systems. It provides a unified environment to:

• Simulate real-world constraints and flows
• Coordinate gas and electricity planning in one model
• Move between short-term operations and 30-year investment studies

When the accuracy of a forecast affects billions in capital or customer rates, PLEXOS® is the platform decision-makers rely on.

In North America’s gas landscape, this capability isn’t theoretical; it’s essential. PLEXOS® isn’t just powering national planning models; it’s enabling hands-on analysis of how gas contracts, infrastructure, and market behavior intersect across timeframes. From regulators preparing for IRPs to procurement teams navigating LNG volatility, PLEXOS® adapts to real use cases. Here’s how teams are applying it in practice.

Inside the platform: Key capabilities for North America

Portfolio optimization

Model and operate a gas portfolio, contracts, pipeline entitlements, storage, across seasons and stress conditions. With PLEXOS®, portfolio optimization allows teams to:

• Align gas supply strategies with operational and market realities
• Balance cost, risk, and reliability across multiple planning scenarios
• Understand how policy, weather, or market events impact commercial outcomes

Plan and operate across:

• Contracts, nominations, and storage assets
• Demand uncertainty and price volatility

Use cases include seasonal procurement, hedging strategy, and market exposure assessment.

Fundamental market simulation

Fundamental market simulation models the physical behavior of gas markets based on infrastructure, demand, supply, and policy, not just statistical trends. It reflects how prices form, and flows respond under real-world conditions like congestion, storage dynamics, and cross-border activity.

In PLEXOS®, this means simulating:

• Pipeline and storage constraints across the full North American network
• Price formation at 76 hubs under different scenarios
• Impacts of policy changes, LNG exports, or weather events on system behavior

It enables planners and regulators to build credible long-term outlooks, test infrastructure feasibility, and support defensible regulatory filings grounded in transparent system logic.

Analyze and explain:

• Price formation, pipeline utilization, and storage behavior
• LNG flows and terminal feasibility
• Infrastructure planning and regulatory scenarios

Build credible forecasts that support filings, procurement, and planning.

How PLEXOS® delivers what gas planners need

PLEXOS® delivers what gas planners need through integrated solutions designed to support fast, defensible decisions across planning, procurement, and regulation.

PLEXOS® Insights for North America – Gas

A web-based forecasting service:

• Weekly refreshed views across 76 gas hubs
• Includes prices, flows, production, storage, and LNG activity
• No setup required; access via dashboards, CSV, or API

Delivered via dashboard, API, or CSV, no setup required

PLEXOS® Playbook for North America – Gas

Editable scenario templates:

• Prebuilt models for demand, policy, infrastructure, and risk
• Modify assumptions in Excel or dashboards
• Run simulations directly in the cloud with version control

Ideal for IRPs, regulatory filings, and internal alignment across stakeholders.

North American Fundamental Gas Model

A Simulation Ready Dataset covering:

• 172 pipelines, 30 LNG terminals, 450+ storage sites
• Over 1,000 demand classes across sectors
• Pressure, linepack, tariffs, contracts, and border flows

Editable and integrated into both PLEXOS® Insights and PLEXOS® Playbooks for consistency.

From questions to scenarios, you can stand behind

Gas planning isn’t about guesswork. It’s about clear, defensible logic

PLEXOS® Gas equips teams with the tools to:

• Validate assumptions
• Simulate outcomes
• Defend decisions

As scrutiny grows and timeframes shrink, teams need a platform that delivers clarity at pace. PLEXOS® Gas does just that, and it's trusted globally to do it right.