Powering the Digital Surge: How Utilities Can Stay Ahead of the Data Center Boom with PLEXOS®

Data centers are reshaping electricity planning in North America. Driven by rapid growth in hyperscale computing, AI workloads, and cloud infrastructure, these facilities are placing new pressures on utility systems. Traditional forecasting approaches that are often based on slow and steady demand growth are no longer sufficient to keep pace. 

In a recent Energy Exemplar webinar, Joe Nyangon, Talha Ali, and Tarek Ibrahim discussed how utilities can adapt their planning processes in the face of this shift, and how the PLEXOS® platform supports data center siting and sizing decisions with deeper insight into grid capacity, constraints, and future congestion risks. 

Utilities Are Planning for an Unprecedented Scale of Load Growth 

Nyangon outlined the core challenge: emerging large loads, especially data centers, are introducing significant uncertainty into utility forecasting and planning processes. These are not small, incremental increases in demand, but multi-gigawatt requests with aggressive development timelines that need to join already constrained grids. 

Compounding this challenge are regional grid reliability concerns. According to NERC’s 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, several areas in North America are likely to experience shortfalls in electricity supply during peak summer and winter seasons. Extreme weather is adding volatility, and the need to serve large, constant-load data centers only increases pressure on the system. 

The Data Center Surge: The Latest Energy Dilemma and the Path Forward

Learn more about the cascading effects of data centers' insatiable need for energy for utilities and data centers alike in this blog. 

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New Siting Patterns: From Primary Hubs to Secondary Markets

As transmission becomes constrained in current data center hubs, developers are turning to secondary and emerging markets. Land and electricity costs remain the dominant siting criteria, but developers now must also consider grid reliability, available transfer capacity, and long-term congestion risk. 

Talha Ali noted that hyperscale developers want confidence in grid capacity before pursuing interconnection and are increasingly willing to build in less-developed regions if reliable access to power can be assured. This shift is forcing data centers to locate in regions with less infrastructure maturity and more siting uncertainty. 

Available Transfer Capability (ATC) Is Becoming a Core Screening Metric 

Tarek Ibrahim emphasized that Available Transfer Capacity (ATC) is one of the most critical metrics when screening data center locations. Understanding withdrawal capacity at the node level helps utilities and developers identify the most viable interconnection points and avoid sites where capacity constraints or permitting barriers could delay development. 

PLEXOS supports a detailed approach to ATC analysis by incorporating: 

• Network constraints (line limits, transformer ratings) 
• Screening contingencies (N-1 reliability criteria) 
• Generic Transmission Constraints (GTCs across interfaces) 
• Forecast grid conditions (load, generation dispatch, weather) 

This allows users to assess how much capacity is available at specific nodes, evaluate limiting elements in the network, and understand which conditions might reduce capacity over time. 

Modeling the Grid of the Future, Not Just the Present

The speakers stressed that today’s grid constraints may not reflect power flows in future years. PLEXOS enables utilities and developers to move beyond static analysis by integrating updated power flow cases (.raw files) into the simulation. These files allow users to visualize the full transmission topology, including buses, lines, and transformers. 

Other advanced capabilities in PLEXOS include: 

• Kron reduction to simplify topologies while preserving accuracy 
• Integration with AC power flow tools 
• Contingency screening to identify mon-con pairs that could emerge under different system states 
• Congestion analysis showing binding constraints and how they shift under load and dispatch changes 

By modeling transmission congestion, nodal interactions, and scenario variability, PLEXOS helps users better understand the risks and opportunities at any given interconnection point. 

Real-World Workflow: Siting and Sizing Data Centers with PLEXOS

Talha Ali walked through a siting demo using PLEXOS to evaluate multiple candidate data center sites. The core questions were: 

• What is the available withdrawal capacity (MW) at each preferred node? 
• What are the most limiting transmission elements at that site? 
• How does load size impact the site's ability to meet full demand? 

The workflow involved placing load at selected nodes and using sensitivity analysis to determine whether withdrawal capacity could be sustained as the site scales. The demo output included a Most Limiting Element report, giving developers and planners visibility into which assets could restrict future performance. 

Implications for Utility Planners

The data center boom is reshaping expectations around utility planning timelines, capacity forecasting, and regional transmission development. Utilities must now: 

• Incorporate large commercial and industrial loads into long-range planning models 
• Anticipate shifts in siting patterns as developers move beyond traditional hubs 
• Use nodal-level tools like PLEXOS to assess grid readiness, reliability risk, and investment need 

Without accurate data and flexible modeling tools, utilities risk delays, cost overruns, or service disruptions as they attempt to respond to hyperscale load growth. 

Final Thought: A New Standard for Siting and Interconnection Strategy

Traditional processes that rely on static interconnection maps or heuristic thresholds are too slow and too coarse for today’s market. Data center developers need faster, more data-driven answers. Utilities need confidence that their systems can support these loads without jeopardizing reliability. 

By combining nodal modeling, ATC screening, contingency analysis, and sensitivity workflows, PLEXOS gives both utilities and data center developers the insights they need to make smart, future-ready infrastructure and investment decisions.