Predictive Modeling & Simulation's Impact on Clean Energy
Written by:Team Energy Exemplar
Changes towards more renewable energy have inspired the evolution of greater flexibility in the grid, which traditional systems were never designed to accommodate. The grid must be able to adapt to changes in energy needs and consumption, ranging from small-scale wind turbines, rooftop solar panels, to electric car chargers. Significant amounts of planning and innovation to redesign the current grid infrastructure will be required. New predictive technologies will play a critical role.
As we look at figure 1 shown below, we highlight the components to achieving carbon neutrality.
As many have hypothesized on what it would take for the world to be net-zero by 2050, many factors will contribute to moving us forward. Understanding the carbon target variables such as renewable generation, green hydrogen, battery storage, electric vehicles, carbon capture, and demand response enables you to build a flexible model.
Seamless integration of all simulation phases
Over the years, we continue to work with clients to adapt to the changing landscape of energy markets and the needs of renewable energy resources and developers. A major advantage available today is working on one single platform to plan your long, medium, and short-term model. Now you can bring together your capital investment decisions, custom constraints, and specific operating characteristics allowing you to realize seamless integration.
Modeling requirements for hybrid resources
Sub-hourly granularity – Model and optimize at the sub-hourly resolution to capture near real-time system variances.
Manage uncertainty - Weather patterns, demand response, electric transportation, and system event create uncertainty and risk. Energy storage can be used as a mitigation resource and determine the size of the uncertainty when storage is factored into the equation.
Hybrid resources modeling - Detailed and specific modeling of hybrid resources such as wind, solar, batteries, and energy storage systems. By incorporating a hybrid approach you'll be able to take into account maintenance considerations, capacity considerations, and more. Resulting in lots of flexibility.
Performance - Faster and bigger changes in market conditions require quicker modeling and decision support applications. Work within operational time frames (seconds or minutes), sub-hourly, Monte-Carlo, or stochastic scenarios. The sophistication of assets you are modeling.
Renewable energy considerations for growth
When it comes to renewables, it’s important you have the proper tools, software, and solutions in place to plan, model, and forecast confidently. Once you have chosen the right energy simulation company, there are a few key areas to focus on to optimize your decisions for an increase in profit, reduction of errors, and creation of new competitive advantages.
- Reduction in transmission network congestion
- Provision of reserve services and co-optimization of these services with energy provision
- Transmission and distribution network investment deferral
- Grid stabilization and intermittency/transmission loss reduction
- Sub-hourly chronological unit commitment
- Bidding strategies
- Load leveling, energy smoothing, and peak shaving for renewable sources.
Optimizing profit and operational performance through energy storage
If your business is focused on renewable energy resources, it’s a given that you’re interested in battery storage. Whether it’s solar storage or hydrogen storage, you are going to want to consider the methods below for optimizing performance.
- Model the optimal build-out for storage
- Accurately capture/predict costs overtime
- Plan for ancillary services to assign the storage plant with the right value
- Generate maximum revenue when the energy stream is variable, and account for how a specific market is set-up
- Model sub-hourly, to the minute or second, to optimize operational performance
- Model with laws, regulations, and subsidies in mind
- Understand how the unit is being compensated (i.e. subsidies) and incorporate it into modeling
- Effectively calculate the dropping price.
At Energy Exemplar, we’re a global community of energy decision-makers, influencers, and policy-makers. Our team of software and energy markets experts has worked with over 400+ companies across the globe to run a multitude of highly accurate forecasts and focus on what uniquely benefits them.
To truly know that you have the best insights, request a demo of our PLEXOS, to see the profound impact optimal decision making will have for you.