Strategic Battery Deployment
See how nodal-level simulations identify the most profitable BESS sites, even in congested grid conditions.
Building a Resilient Philippine Grid
Understand how advanced analytics help balance growth, reliability, and investment returns in the energy transition.
Smarter Market Decisions
Discover how scenario testing and backcasting can guide bidding, PPA planning, and risk management in a volatile market.
Precision Price Forecasting
Learn how high-resolution, bid-based modeling replicates IEMOP’s dispatch to deliver accurate short-term WESM price predictions.
3 September at 14:30PM PHST
Price Forecasting for the Philippine WESM Market using PLEXOS
Energy Exemplar has developed a new PLEXOS bid‑based model that replicates the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines’ (IEMOP) market‑clearing engine. The simulation‑ready Philippines dataset provides a snapshot of market drivers—including generator bid curves, flow data and prices—and a detailed simulation of how the market operates. It is calibrated against historical data and features 5‑minute intervals, a full backcast for benchmarking and extensive modelling of the Philippine generator fleet. The dataset enables users to test almost any market scenario, analyse the impact on demand–supply balance, market prices and flows, and evaluate how policy changes or carbon scenarios might influence operations.
Using this model, participants—including power utilities, independent power producers, investors, planners, consultants, traders, renewable developers, portfolio managers and regulators - can generate short‑term price forecasts that replicate IEMOP’s dispatch and pricing algorithm. The session will demonstrate how to backcast against actual WESM results, explore sensitivities such as plant outages, demand fluctuations or fuel price changes, and design bidding strategies and power‑purchase nominations around expected price movements. It will also highlight how accurate forecasting supports government agencies in monitoring market power and evaluating policy reforms.
Key highlights include:
- High‑resolution data for forecasting. Understand why a 5‑minute resolution and detailed modelling of generator bids, flows and prices are essential for short‑term forecasting. Learn how PLEXOS uses this data to replicate the IEMOP dispatch and produce nodal price predictions for upcoming trading intervals.
- Back casting and calibration. See how to validate the model by backcasting against recent WESM results using the full historical dataset. This calibration step improves confidence in forward forecasts.
- Input preparation and scenario configuration. Learn how to incorporate updated demand forecasts, generator outages, fuel prices and other market drivers into the model. Explore the use of scenario analysis to test sensitivities and assess how different factors affect short‑term price trajectories.
- Forecast interpretation and application. Discover how to translate PLEXOS output into actionable insights: day‑ahead and week‑ahead price curves, expected price volatility, and locational price differences. Understand how utilities, IPPs and traders can use these forecasts to optimise bids, nominate power purchases and manage exposure.
- Regulatory and policy insights. Appreciate how short‑term forecasts can assist regulators and government agencies in monitoring market power, evaluating the effectiveness of price caps or mitigation measures, and understanding the near‑term impact of policy changes.
SPEAKER:
|
Kai Zhang |
.png?width=199&height=199&name=Kai%20(1).png)
17th September 14:30PM PHST
Gridlock or Opportunity? Unlocking Battery Value Amid Visayas Congestion
As the Philippines accelerates its transition to renewables, grid congestion is emerging as one of the biggest constraints—and opportunities—in the energy investment landscape. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Visayas, where persistent transmission bottlenecks are driving up locational marginal prices and shaping where storage can deliver the most value.
In this webinar, we’ll present new findings from a detailed case study using PLEXOS to simulate the Philippine grid at the nodal level. We’ll explore how BESS deliver arbitrage and reserve revenues—even in locations where intuition might say otherwise.
Key highlights include:
- A deep dive into congestion impacts and price differentials in the Visayas
- Why Bohol’s high prices don’t automatically make it the best site for batteries
- How PLEXOS optimally chose Leyte for larger BESS builds—and the rationale behind it
- The role of transmission upgrades and storage in reducing LMPs
- Insights for IPPs, DUs, NGCP, and developers on how to optimize siting and timing
Whether you’re planning new battery assets, evaluating PPAs, or concerned about grid constraints, this session will equip you with the analytical tools to make smarter investment decisions.
SPEAKER:
|
Meifeng Ren |
